UK pandemic modelling, an update
Nine days is a long time when it comes to pandemics. I’ve updated my UK forecasting model with improved assumptions on the vaccine rollout and immunity, and also looked at the impact of different policies for the relaxation of restrictions.
Norwegian shuts down its long-haul operations. What went wrong?
Norwegian is shutting down its long-haul operations and will now focus only on short-haul. At the peak, they flew more seats to New York than British Airways. What went wrong?
Virgin Atlantic finally publishes its 2019 accounts
At long last Virgin Atlantic have published their 2019 accounts. What do they show about the financial position of the airline going into the crisis, and what do they reveal about their plans to survive it?
Winter-sun destinations drive long-haul uptick at Heathrow in December
December passenger statistics for Heathrow demonstrated strong demand for winter sun destinations, with long-haul performance overtaking short-haul for the first time since the pandemic started.
Modelling the UK pandemic in 2021
With the pandemic “out of control” in the UK, how might things develop over the rest of 2021? I constructed a model and generated some forecasts.
Brexit: what the newly announced deal means for aviation
The full text of the post Brexit UK-EU trade-deal has been announced. What does it mean for aviation?
Another rescue plan for Alitalia, does it stack up?
Another year, another government-funded rescue plan for chronically loss-making Alitalia. This time with a €3 billion price tag. Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera asked me to review the plan and this is what I told them.
Implications of the new virus strain for aviation
A new, more transmissive strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been identified in the UK. What are the potential implications for aviation worldwide?
A quick update on passenger volumes in Europe
Normal seasonal weakness has combined with lock-downs in Europe to deliver rock-bottom passenger volumes in November. How are the big hubs doing compared to the low-cost carriers?
Airline industry predictions for 2021
2020 has been the worst ever year for the aviation industry, but the arrival of vaccines is finally providing some grounds for optimism about 2021. What might we expect to see next year? I've made a few predictions.
Pandemic winners and losers in Latin America
Airlines in Latin America have not received the kind of state support seen in most other regions. Weaker airlines have been driven into bankruptcy and restructuring, creating opportunities for stronger ones. Who have been the winners and the losers?
Middle Eastern aviation, a turning point?
After years of huge growth and investment, the big Middle Eastern airlines are being forced to cut capacity and costs in response to the collapse in their markets. With no domestic market to fall back on, will the pandemic mark a turning point in their fortunes?
How quickly are the vaccine cavalry coming?
Recent positive news on vaccines has boosted airline stock prices and offered hopes of a path to recovery. But will the vaccines come soon enough to save airlines battered by the second wave of the pandemic and facing a long hard winter?
An update on COVID testing
We have new results from Canada about the effectiveness of COVID tests as an alternative to quarantines. What do they tell us and what do they imply for the likely results of a new trial launched yesterday by British Airways and American Airlines?
Another setback for aviation in Africa
Africa has long punched below its weight in the global aviation industry. Before the pandemic, some African airlines had started to realise that potential and the region was one of the fastest growing regions. How are things looking now?
Waiting for a vaccine: the big three European network airlines in Q3
All three of the big network airline groups in Europe made big losses in the third quarter. That is going to continue until we see a recovery in demand. We got some good news on that today, but which company coped best in Q3 and how are they doing getting themselves in shape for the future?
Assessing September quarter results from Wizz
Wizz reported its first half results this morning. I took a look at how they stack up against those of their arch rival, Ryanair.
Ryanair posts a profit for the September quarter
Excluding exceptional hedging costs, Ryanair became the first European airline to post a quarterly profit since the pandemic began. Impressive cost performance lay behind this achievement, putting other airlines on notice that they need to up their game.
Air France - KLM beats IAG and Lufthansa in Q3
Air France - KLM and IAG both reported their Q3 results today. How did they compare?
Heathrow’s Q3 results. Is it crying wolf to the CAA?
Heathrow airport has been pushing its regulator to allow it to offload its pandemic losses onto its customers, citing dire consequences if its request is not urgently addressed. What did the Q3 results published yesterday tell us about whether the airport's owners are crying wolf?