The US reopens its borders to Europe
Fully vaccinated travellers free to travel to the US from early November
The White House has announced a major step forward in the reopening of international travel today, saying that from “early November”, fully vaccinated travellers from the UK and the EU will once again be free to travel to the US. This brings to an end a prolonged period where US residents were free to travel to Europe, but European residents were blocked from going to the US. The imbalance was causing mounting frustration and escalating diplomatic pressure and President Biden finally decided it was time to get rid of a ban which had no scientific justification.
Travellers will need to get a negative pre-departure test, but will not need to quarantine on arrival. People who are not fully vaccinated will not be permitted to travel, although apparently there will be exemptions for children who are not eligible for the vaccines.
As usual, there will be some “devil in the detail” as to which vaccines qualify. So far, the US has said that is a matter for the CDC. The vaccines that have been approved for use in the US will clearly qualify, but notably that does not include the Astra Zeneca vaccine, used extensively in the UK and Europe. However, UK media are reporting that the UK government has been given reassurances that AZ will qualify.
Whilst the change was almost certainly triggered by pressure from the UK and the EU, the new rules will apparently apply to all countries. So the ban will also be lifted for travellers from China, India, South Africa, Iran and Brazil.
It could however be bad news for some travellers from countries which were not subject to the ban, such as Mexico and Canada. Unvaccinated travellers from those countries are currently free to travel to the US, but will need to be vaccinated from November.
Thanksgiving boost for airlines
The timing of the change looks like it will be in time for airlines to benefit from the Thanksgiving travel peak. Many families have been separated by the restrictions for 18 months, so there is likely to be a surge in bookings from people desperate to be with their families for Thanksgiving. Following the news, Virgin Atlantic’s web site went down as Brits rushed to make bookings and Skyscanner reported a 54% increase in site traffic compared to last week.
North America accounted for around a quarter of passenger numbers from Heathrow before the crisis. Many of the passengers travelling to other regions were also making connections to North America, so the real share was even higher. And of course fares to long-haul destinations like the US are higher than domestic and short-haul trips, so the significance to airline revenue is greater still. In 2019, tickets sold in the USA accounted for 20% of revenue for British Airways. The revenue sold in the UK and Europe for trips to the USA will have been at least as large, so 40% or more of total revenue is affected by routes to the USA.
Due to the restrictions, August passenger volumes from Heathrow to North America were only 19% of the level in 2019. So there is a lot of room for travel to recover. The reopening of the US market is a real lifeline for airports and airlines alike as they head into the winter season.
Following quickly after the recent positive change to the UK’s testing regime, it is beginning to look like the long awaited recovery for UK airlines may finally be beginning to gather steam.
